The United States Civil War lasted 4 years (1861-1865) and caused more than 1 million casualties—more American deaths than in all other U.S. wars combined.
Now imagine a civil war lasting well over 100 years.
The period in Japan known as the Sengoku period, from 1467 to roughly 1615, was just such a period. Japan was in near constant civil war, with regional daimyo continually fighting for land, power, and control.
In the late 1560s, Oda Nobunaga began to consolidate a large portion of central Japan through successful sieges and battles, bringing the first stability in over 100 years, though he died before unifying all of Japan. Toyotomi Hideyoshi, one of his top generals, continued the process, but died in 1598 without an heir who could immediately take over.
Following Hideyoshi’s death, Tokugawa Ieyasu masterfully positioned himself to seize power and eventually became Shogun of Japan. He was both careful and bold at the right times, calculating and subtle, switching alliances when it benefited him. He acted only when the odds were in his favor. He went on to found the Tokugawa shogunate, which ruled Japan for the next 260 years.
Tokugawa Ieyasu fought in 90+ battles throughout his lifetime. Later in life he reflected: “The strong ones in life are those who understand the meaning of the word patience. Patience means restraining one’s inclinations. There are seven emotions: joy, anger, anxiety, adoration, grief, fear, and hate, and if a man does not give way to these, he can be called patient. I am not as strong as I might be, but I have long known and practiced patience. And if my descendants wish to be as I am, they must study patience.”
Some things just take time. Knowing when to act and when not to act is a powerful skill.
Investing can be thought of similarly. Warren Buffett has said, “Time is the friend of a wonderful company, and the enemy of a mediocre one,” and “You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.” Warren Buffett also understands the value of patience.
Understanding and appreciating these quotes by arguably the greatest investor of all time, and employing the active patience Ieyasu was so masterfully able to do, will serve you well.
-Paul R. Rossi, CFA