My Stock Market Prediction for 2024

Very few things in life move in a perfectly linear manner.

Learning typically happens in a lumpy fashion. The aging process is much the same—years go by, and then all of a sudden change becomes visible. Health is no different, and career progression is notoriously uneven.

The stock market is no different. Think of it as a feature of the system and not a bug, it can’t be completely squashed.

This chart shows the number of pullbacks in the S&P 500 price index going back to 1980. There have been 226 pullbacks, defined as a drop greater than or equal to 5% from a previous high. Investing in the stock market is inherently uncertain in the short-term. Large and small pullbacks can occur at any time…and do, quite regularly.

The market experiences several pullbacks each year with very few exceptions. Understanding and accepting this truth will go a long way in helping you build wealth.

So, what’s my prediction for 2024? I’ll step out on a limb, and say, “the market will be volatile.”

-Paul R. Rossi, CFA