Donald Rumsfeld served as Secretary of Defense under two different presidents. During his second stint in 2001, he sent the President a piece by Pentagon official Lin Wells about the difficulty of predicting the future.
- In 1900, a security policymaker in the world’s greatest power would have been British and wary of France.
- By 1910, Britain was allied with France and Germany was the enemy.
- By 1920, World War I had been fought and won, and a naval arms race involved former allies, the United States and Japan.
- By 1930, naval-arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and defense planning assumed no war for ten years.
- Nine years later, World War II began.
- By 1950, Britain was no longer the greatest power, the Atomic Age had dawned, and war was underway in Korea.
- Ten years later, attention focused on the missile gap and few people had heard of Vietnam.
- By 1970, the peak of U.S. involvement in Vietnam had passed, détente with the Soviets was beginning, and the Shah was becoming a U.S. protégé in the Gulf.
- By 1980, the Soviets were in Afghanistan, Iran was in revolution, and the United States was the greatest creditor nation the world had seen.
- By 1990, the Soviet Union was near dissolution, U.S. forces were preparing for Desert Storm, the United States had become the greatest debtor nation, and almost no one had heard of the internet.
- Ten years later, Warsaw was the capital of a NATO nation and revolutions in information, biotechnology, robotics, nanotechnology, and energy foreshadowed changes beyond forecasting.
Wells concluded that he did not know what 2010 would look like, but he was sure it would look very little like people expected, so they should plan accordingly.
This was written and sent to the President five months before September 11, 2001.
-Paul R. Rossi, CFA